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Investors are starting to take seriously the idea that the Fed might not cut interest rates in 2024. At this point, investors are viewing economic strength as ultimately good news for the stock market, if that means a recession is delayed. AdvertisementFrom seven, to three, to now potentially zero, projected interest rate cuts in 2024 are quickly going out of style on Wall Street. So a delay in interest rate cuts, on paper, would suggest lower stock prices. And better-than-expected first quarter profits have helped put a floor on a stock market that is trading near record highs, even as talks of interest rate cuts fade.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Mohamed El, Torsten Slok, Slok, Ken Fisher Organizations: Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Fed, Bank of America
Despite Thursday's declines, the S & P 500 is only 2% from last week's record highs. The surprise isn't that the S & P 500 dropped Thursday. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6 months First-quarter earnings estimates for the S & P 500 have slipped to an expected gain of 5.1%, down from an anticipated increase of 7.2% on Jan. 1, according to LSEG. Since earnings are what ultimately moves stocks, the question is not "What would cause a modest 2% to 5% decline?" To do that, market participants would need to believe that earnings estimates were off significantly.
Persons: Daniel Kahneman, Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, Neel Kashkari, it's, John Butters, Charles Schwab Organizations: Economic Sciences, Israel's, Federal Reserve Bank of, FactSet Locations: Gaza, Iran, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius on Friday said he still expects the Federal Reserve to implement three interest rate cuts, adding that he would be "very surprised" if the U.S. central bank ultimately decided no trims at all were necessary. His comments come shortly after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari became the latest high-profile official to float the possibility of zero rate cuts before the year's end, if inflation remained sticky. "If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all," Kashkari said on Thursday during an interview with Pensions & Investments. Separately, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier in the week that it would take a while for policymakers to evaluate the current state of inflation, leaving the timing of potential interest rate cuts uncertain. Speaking to CNBC's Steve Sedgwick on the sidelines of the Ambrosetti Forum on Friday, Goldman Sachs' Hatzius said he was bullish on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Persons: Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Steve Sedgwick, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, I'm, we've Organizations: Reserve, Minneapolis, Pensions, Investments Locations: U.S
Asia-Pacific markets were largely set to fall on Friday, mirroring moves on Wall Street after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials fueled worries that the central bank could hold off on rate cuts. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari cast doubts on Thursday over the central bank cutting rates at all if inflation remained sticky. Oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude surpassing $86 a barrel to test six-month highs. Brent crude prices also set a new six-month high of $90.65. S&P will also release its business activity numbers for Hong Kong, while the Reserve Bank of India will announce its rate decision later in the day.
Persons: Neel Kashkari Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Brent, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific, U.S, Hong Kong
Dollar steady ahead of jobs data; yen hits two-week high
  + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen, while still close to the 152 range, hit a two-week high against the greenback as safe-haven bids and fresh warnings from Japanese authorities buoyed the currency. The dollar has had a turbulent week, falling from a five-month high to a two-week low after an unexpected slowdown in U.S. services growth supported expectations of bringing interest rates down. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was last largely unchanged at 104.18. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Friday reiterated the government's resolve to take appropriate action against sharp yen falls. The yen strengthened 0.29% versus the greenback to a two-week high of 150.92.
Persons: payrolls, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Charu Chanana, Joe Biden, Matt Simpson, Shunichi Suzuki, Kazuo Ueda, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, The U.S, greenback, Minneapolis Federal, Saxo, Biden, Finance, Bank of Japan, Asahi Locations: The, Minneapolis, Gaza, Iran
Noting a number of potential upside risks to inflation, Bowman said policymakers need to be careful not to ease policy too quickly. "Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent over the longer run." The speech, to the Shadow Open Market Committee, comes with markets on edge about the near-term future of Fed policy. Weighing inflation risks, she said that supply-side improvements that helped bring numbers down this year may not have the same impact going forward. Fed officials will get their next look at inflation data Wednesday, when the Labor Department releases the March consumer price index report.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Federal, of Governors, Market, Committee, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Minneapolis Fed, Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York
The 2-year Treasury yield was also marginally higher at 4.648%. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading up less than one basis point at 4.318% at 4:02 a.m. The jobs figures will play into market expectations of when the Federal Reserve could start to cut interest rates. At its last meeting, the central bank indicated that it still expects three rate cuts by the end of this year. However, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Thursday became the latest high-profile figure to question whether there will be any rate cuts if inflation remains high.
Persons: Dow Jones, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Investments, Traders
The 2-year Treasury note yield traded marginally higher at 4.685%. The 10-year Treasury yield was slightly higher on Thursday as investors closely monitored speeches from a host of Federal Reserve officials and awaited the release of key economic data. It comes as market participants continue to keep track of comments from Fed officials and await the release of the U.S. jobs report on Friday. A flurry of Fed speeches are also scheduled to take place. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are just some of the officials poised to deliver comments on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Patrick Harker, Tom Barkin, Neel Kashkari, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Stanford University, Traders, Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed, Minneapolis Fed Locations: U.S, Richmond
Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange on April 5, 2024. Stocks rebounded Friday following the Dow Jones Industrial Average 's worst session in more than a year as traders cheered a stronger-than-expected jobs report and looked past a jump in rates. The 30-stock Dow climbed 307.06 points, or 0.8%, to settle at 38,904.04. The Dow slid 2.27%, posting its worst weekly performance in 2024. The Dow tumbled about 530 points, or 1.35%, on Thursday, marking its biggest daily drop since March 2023 and its fourth consecutive losing session.
Persons: Stocks, Dow, Nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Jamie Cox, Neel Kashkari Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Labor, Federal Reserve, Harris Financial, Minneapolis Federal Locations: Minneapolis
Fed officials have said rate cuts are coming soon, but inflation must still cool further. Markets are placing the greatest odds on a rate cut in June, fed fund futures show. AdvertisementFederal Reserve officials have said interest rate cuts are coming this year, but there's not an exact date in their outlook just yet. Those expectations were little changed after Tuesday's inflation report, which showed CPI came in hotter than expected in February. Reducing our policy rate too soon could result in requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent in the longer run."
Persons: , there's, CME's, Jerome Powell, " Neel Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Christopher Waller Organizations: Service, Federal, Bank of America, Capital, Capital Economics, Labor
High interest rates squeeze companies of all sizes, but that’s especially the case for smaller firms, unlike large companies better equipped to weather the storm. Before the Bell: How do the effects of higher-for-longer interest rates on companies vary by size? I think it might be a stretch to say that M&A activity picks up because of higher interest rates, so instead, it’s that if good businesses are beginning to suffer because of higher interest rates, then they might be more likely to be a target. Gas prices always rise as winter winds down because demand increases and gas stations must switch over to more expensive summer fuel. No matter the cause, rising gas prices are bad news for consumers already frustrated by the cost of living.
Persons: It’s, Bell, Lauren Goodwin, Matt Egan, , Patrick De Haan, doesn’t, ” Read, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, Lisa Cook, Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, New York Life Investments, AAA, , HSBC, Walmart, Home Depot, Barclays, Caesars Entertainment, Nvidia, Rivian, Fidelity, Marriott, Intuit, Pacific Gas & Electric, Global, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Warner Bros ., Icahn Enterprises Locations: Washington, Wingstop, United States
ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.1715% and the yield on the 2-year Treasury was steady at 4.4651%. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Friday as investors weighed fresh economic data and considered the path ahead for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investors looked to the latest economic releases for hints about the state of the economy and the potential path ahead for interest rates. It comes amid rife speculation over the timeline of interest rate cuts, with Fed officials appearing cautious and dashing investor hopes of a reduction as early as March. No key economic data is due Friday, however investors are looking ahead to major data releases slated for next week including January's consumer price index.
Persons: Neel Kashkari Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Dow, Fed, Minneapolis
The dollar is back. It’s not all good news
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN —The greenback is strengthening again after a bumpy 2023, as Wall Street accepts that interest rate cuts are coming later than previously expected. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against the British pound, euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona, is up 2.8% for the year as of Friday morning. “All of a sudden the interest rate differential kicks in — if that is slower than the Fed or faster,” said Krosby. Higher interest rates tend to garner more international capital to flow into a country, raising demand for the currency and thus its value. Still, Todd Jones, chief investment officer at Gratus Capital, says he expects the dollar to trend lower eventually as the Fed gets closer to cutting rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Quincy Krosby, , Neel Kashkari, Todd Jones, Jones, Anna Cooban, Richard Meade, Janet Yellen, Alicia Wallace, Yellen, ” Yellen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Swiss, Canadian, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, LPL, Treasury, Minneapolis, Gratus, Fed, Hamas, Lloyds, CNN, Banking Committee Locations: New York, Swedish, Iran, Suez, Asia, Europe
ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was up by just over one basis point to 4.1095%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last down by less than one basis point at 4.4185%. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Thursday as investors considered remarks from Federal Reserve officials about the path ahead for interest rate cuts. On Wednesday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told CNBC's "Squawk Box" that he believes two or three rate cuts would take place in 2024. The comments echoed those made by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week and stoked concerns among investors that fewer rate cuts than they have been expecting could be implemented.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, CNBC's, Jerome Powell, Adriana Kugler, Powell Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis Federal, Fed
The bank announced earlier on Wednesday that it had appointed DiNello, formerly the president of Flagstar Bank, to the position effective immediately. The bank holds total deposits of approximately $83 billion, the lender said in a statement Tuesday evening. US banks hold about $2.7 trillion in commercial real estate loans. But while the last crisis was all about interest rate risk, this one revolves around the $20 trillion commercial real estate market. The increase was driven partly by expected losses on commercial real estate loans, it said.
Persons: ” Alessandro DiNello, DiNello, NYCB, , weren’t, Fitch, Thomas Cangemi, ” DiNello, Goldman Sachs, Moody’s, Neel Kashkari, ” Kashkari, he’s, Janet Yellen, , Yellen, “ I’m, ” Yellen Organizations: New, New York CNN —, New York Community Bancorp, Moody’s Investors Service, Flagstar Bank, Bank, Moody’s, JPMorgan, Signature Bank, Silicon Valley, Regulators, Federal, Community Bancorp, CNBC, Financial Locations: New York, Flagstar, New, Minneapolis
Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, speaks during an interview with Reuters in New York City, New York, May 22, 2023. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Wednesday that he expects the central bank to cut rates only a few times this year, contrary to market expectations. "We just need to look at the actual inflation data to guide us," Kashkari said. He added that there are "compelling arguments to suggest we could be in a longer, higher rate environment going forward." Kashkari said the trend indicates that interest rates may not be exerting as much pressure on the economy as expected.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Kashkari Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Reuters, Minneapolis Federal, CNBC, CBS, Market, Minneapolis Fed, Labor Locations: New York City , New York, Minneapolis
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMinneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari: 2 to 3 rate cuts seem appropriate right now based on the dataMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the strong labor market, impact on the Fed's inflation fight, rate path outlook, commercial real estate sector, and more.
Persons: Neel Kashkari Organizations: Minneapolis
Neel Kashkari, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, during an interview in New York on Nov. 7, 2023. Interest rates running at their highest levels in about 23 years are not hurting the economy and could buy policymakers more time before deciding whether to cut, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Monday. In an essay released on the central bank's website, Kashkari said economic developments have shown that Fed policy is not as restrictive on growth as it appears on the surface. That means the longer-run "neutral" rate, or the level that is neither restrictive nor stimulative, is probably higher than before the Covid-19 pandemic. Markets have been betting on an aggressive move lower, but recent statements from central bank officials indicate little need to hurry.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Minneapolis Federal Locations: New York
Inflation will drop sharply, but prices won't get back to the Fed's 2% target soon, Mohamed El-Erian said. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe economy will soon see a sharp drop in inflation – but that still won't be enough to return it to the central bank's target, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. Headline inflation accelerated 3.7% year-per-year in September, slightly above the expected 3.6% clip. Meanwhile, core inflation accelerated 4.1% year-per-year, in-line with economists' forecasts. Headline inflation is expected to accelerate 3.28% year-per-year, while core inflation is expected to remain mostly level at 4.16%, according to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, , Goldman Sachs, Neel Kashkari, Powell Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Allianz, Federal, Minneapolis, of Labor Statistics, Cleveland
Fellow Governor Michelle Bowman said she took the recent Gross Domestic Product number as evidence the economy not only "remained strong," but might have gained speed and requires a higher Fed policy rate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 56.94 points, or 0.17%, to 34,152.8; the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 12.40 points, or 0.28 %, at 4,378.38 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 121.08 points, or 0.90 %, at 13,639.86. The S&P 500 (.SPX) scored its seventh straight day in the green, with the Nasdaq (.IXIC) recording its eighth straight advance, the longest such streak for each index in two years. The Dow gained for a seventh straight session, its longest since a 13-session run in July. The S&P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and three new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 48 new highs and 145 new lows.
Persons: CME's, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Powell, Ken Polcari, Brendan McDermid, Dow, Lorie Logan, Chuck Mikolajczak, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Kace Capital Advisors, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Apple, Dow Jones, . Energy, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Uber Technologies, NYSE, Thomson Locations: U.S, Boca Raton , Florida, New York City
Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. Brent crude futures closed below $84 a barrel for the first time since Hamas Islamists' Oct. 7 attack on Israel. A recovery in oil exports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also added to the pressure on oil prices, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. On the demand side, China's crude oil imports in October showed robust growth but its total exports of goods and services contracted at a quicker pace than expected. "There are concerns in the oil markets about both rising supply and sliding demand," said Mizuho analyst Robert Yawger.
Persons: Nick Oxford, Powell, Craig Erlam, Giovanni Staunovo, Staunovo, Brent, Fiona Cincotta, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Robert Yawger, It's, Shariq Khan, Trixie Yap, Yuka Obayashi, David Gregorio, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Midland , Texas U.S, REUTERS, bbl, BENGALURU, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Traders, Organization of Petroleum, UBS, U.S . Energy Information Administration, ., Minneapolis Federal, Investors, Thomson Locations: Midland , Texas, Israel, U.S, Bengaluru, Singapore, Tokyo
U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. "If you look at the percentage of currencies that have been down versus the dollar over the last 26 weeks, it was approaching 100%, and data also showed very long dollar positioning ... Traders are now pricing in only a slim chance of a further interest rate increase by the Fed and see three 25-basis-point rate cuts by next November. The euro fell 0.20% to $1.0695 after data showed a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Marc Chandler, Jerome Powell, Chester Ntonifor, Chandler, Powell, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Fiona Cincotta, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Paul Simao, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., Australian, greenback, Fed, Bannockburn Global, BCA Research, Traders, . Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, PMI, Index, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, U.S, Bannockburn, New York, London, Singapore
Both Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also refused to rule out rate cuts. The pullback in yields helped lift megacap growth names such as Microsoft (MSFT.O), up 1.5%, and Apple (AAPL.O), up 1.7%, as the biggest boosts to both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Also due to speak on Tuesday was New York Fed President John Williams. The S&P 500 (.SPX) is on pace for its seventh straight day in the green, with the Nasdaq (.IXIC) on track to rise for the eighth day in a row, the longest such streak for each index in two years. The S&P 500 posted 13 new 52-week highs and three new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 43 new highs and 132 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Powell, Ken Polcari, John Williams, Dow, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Kace Capital Advisors, Microsoft, Apple, Dow Jones, Energy, New York Fed, Uber Technologies, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boca Raton , Florida, Bengaluru
"This was an outstanding quarter ... this big blowout number," Waller told an economic data seminar at the St. Louis Fed. So this is something we are keeping a very close eye on when we think about policy going forward." It's clearly calming down," with recent employment gains more in line with the levels seen before the coronavirus pandemic, Waller said. The Fed is in the process of weighing that and other data to determine whether to hike the benchmark policy rate again. However neither Goolsbee nor Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who spoke to Bloomberg Television on Tuesday, ruled out further Fed rate increases.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Louis Fed, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Howard Schneider, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Michael Derby, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, St, Ohio Bankers League, Fed, New York Fed, Atlanta, CNBC, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis, Bloomberg Television, Thomson Locations: U.S
[1/2] FILE PHOTO: The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. MSCI's gauge of global stock performance (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.05%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.06%. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index rose 0.332% to 105.61, with the euro down 0.31% to $1.0682. Treasury yields slid, having unwound some of their rally last week after the Fed left rates unchanged following a policy meeting. The two-year's yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, fell 1.3 basis points to 4.928%, while the 10-year slipped 7.5 basis points at 4.587%.
Persons: Toby Melville, Jerome Powell, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Rick Meckler, we've, Michael Hewson, Brent, Tom Wilson, Tom Westbrook, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln, Kim Coghill, Christina Fincher, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, NEW, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Chicago, Cherry Lane Investments, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of Australia, Treasury, Fed, CMC, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Europe, U.S, New Vernon , New Jersey, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London, Singapore
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